I guess this technically is a basketball blog.
Eastern Conference:
Round 1:
Bulls vs. Sixers: The Bulls were secretly hoping the Knicks
would fall to the 8-seed, because the Sixers have the
energy/athleticism/defense to give them problems. But Philly doesn’t play with
enough consistency to win a playoff series. Especially going up against the
most consistent team in the league. Bulls in 5.
Heat vs. Knicks: You gotta figure that the crowd at MSG is
good for at least one win in the series. And you can probably assume that
Carmelo (30 ppg in April) is good for another win. But that’s pretty much it.
The Knicks’ offense is a mess when Tyson and Amare play together. And even
though Carmelo has been awesome at the 4 lately, that’s because nobody has been
able to match up with him down low. Unfortunately for the Knicks, LeBron might
be the one guy in the world who can. Heat in 6.
Pacers vs. Magic: As soon as Dwight went down, everyone
immediately put the Magic on “Ewing Theory” alert. Not to play spoiler, but
that’s usually not how “Ewing Theories” work. They usually come out of nowhere
when you least expect it. The Pacers are well coached and have worked hard all
season to earn that Number 3 seed. They’ll be ready to play. Pacers in 5.
Celtics vs. Hawks: Still can’t figure out why Doc threw in
the towel on that Atlanta game last week, basically conceding home-court
advantage to the 5th seeded Hawks. It’s even more perplexing when
you consider the struggles the Celtics have had in Atlanta in recent years. This
season, Joe Johnson has been his usual clutch-self, and Josh Smith will get
some All-NBA Third Team votes. But Jeff Teague has been erratic, Kirk Hinrich
has underperformed, Al Horford is still injured, and the Celtics are playing their
best basketball in 14 months. Celtics in 6.
Eastern Conference Semifinals:
Bulls vs. Celtics: Say what you want about the Bulls’ depth,
but the Celtics still have 3 of the 4 best players in the series. That means
something in basketball. If Luol Deng can outplay Pierce, which is a definite
possibility, then this series swings back in favor of the Bulls. But everything
that Pierce has been saying lately (talking about his place in Celtics' history,
etc.) leads me to believe that he is going to bring his “A” game this entire
post-season. Furthermore, with a banged-up Derrick Rose unable to get
consistent playing time lately, Chicago’s offense has been somewhat out of
synch. Rose is a superstar and loves having the weight of the world on his
shoulders, for better or worse. But the Bulls run into problems sometimes when
he tries to do too much. The book on Rose is to clog the lane and force him to
make bad decisions. Doc probably knows this, too. And the Celts’ defense will
be ready. Celtics in 6.
Heat vs. Pacers: If you check out the Pacers’ Wikipedia
page, there’s a section labeled “2007-Present: Danny Granger Era.” That’s not a
good sign. Indiana doesn’t have a player who can propel them to that next
level. In this series, their only advantage is with Roy Hibbert at center.
Listen, I love Hibbert. He does everything well and has great chemistry with Jean Ralphio. But unless he goes for like 35 points, I don’t see the Pacers
even earning a victory in this series. Heat in 4.
Eastern Conference Finals:
Heat vs. Celtics: The Celtics are better than last year.
Stiemsma is better than JO. Bass is better than Baby. And Avery Bradley has a
chance to be an All-Star in this league. So on that alone, I would feel better
about this series than I did about last year’s matchup. But what really gives
the Celtics some hope, is their rebounding matchups against the Heat. The
Celtics, as we all know, are the worst rebounding team in the league. While I
consider it to be their only weakness, it is a significant weakness. The C’s
have lost a handful of games this season due to their inability to grab a late
board. But against the Heat, the Celtics seem to be more active on the glass. During
those two early April victories against Miami, Boston grabbed more rebounds in
both games. Rondo, in particular, rebounds incredibly well against the Heat. Boston’s
most glaring weakness suddenly becomes neutralized (and in some games, a
strength). I’m not saying I expect the Celtics to win this series. But for
those of you who were disappointed by their 4-1 series loss to Miami last year,
I promise you the Celtics would put up a better fight this time around. Heat in
7.
Western Conference:
Round 1:
Spurs vs. Jazz: Gotta feel happy for Al Jefferson. He was
decimal points away from averaging a 20-10, and somehow dragged this team
through the mud and managed to earn that final playoff spot. Also, Gordon
Hayward has quietly been averaging 16 ppg the last month or so, and has been their
second best player. They’ll be lucky to win one game in this series, though.
The Spurs are pretty much better at every position, from the coach right down to
the last folding chair on the bench. Spurs in 4.
Thunder vs. Mavericks: Of all the teams in the NBA, I feel the
most uncomfortable trying to assess Dallas. I don’t think they’ve tried at any
point this season. I’m just waiting for the playoffs to start to see if they
have any interest in competing at all. Ultimately, I think they’ll show some
fight. But when Russell Westbrook steamrolls through the lane and dunks for 45th
time in the series, people are really gonna start to miss Tyson Chandler.
Thunder in 5.
Lakers vs. Nuggets: The Lakers are weird. They have the best
center in the league. The most offensively gifted power forward. The second
greatest basketball player of all-time. And yet, I still have no doubt that
this is going at least 6 games, and maybe 7. If you’ve watched any of The
Association this season, you marvel at how the Nuggets are a true team. George
Karl is an awesome coach. Lawson and Gallinari have blossomed into solid
players and even better leaders. It’s just locker room full of team guys who
work hard and really want to win. They’ll give it everything they got, but
talent wins in basketball. Lakers in 6.
Grizzlies vs. Clippers: As high as I am on the Grizzlies, I
may be even lower on the Clippers. This is not a team built for playoff
basketball. Right now I’m not even convinced that Blake Griffin can be the
third best player on a championship team, and he’s currently the second. Home-court
advantage may have given them some hope, but that’s out of the question now.
Grizzlies in 5.
Western Conference Semifinals:
Spurs vs. Grizzlies: Last year the Spurs were the Number 1
seed and lost their first-round matchup to the Grizzlies. The shocking thing
about that series? It wasn’t that shocking. Everyone walked away from that
series saying the same thing: Memphis was the better team. This year, the Spurs
add a healthy Ginobili and a revitalized version of Tony Parker that is 25%
better than last year. The Grizzlies counter with a healthy Rudy Gay and a
dedicated version of O.J. Mayo that is 125% better than last year. Call it a
wash. Memphis dominated San Antonio last year. I can’t envision Popovich
allowing that to happen again, but I still like boys from Tennessee. Grizzlies
in 7.
Thunder vs. Lakers: After working their asses off to get by
Denver, the Lakers just won’t have enough to keep pace with the Thunder. OKC
will be ready for them. Remember back in 2010 when the Thunder took Game 1 of
their first-round matchup with the Lakers? Everyone was hoping they could pull
off the upset, but the Lakers experience prevailed and they went on to win 4 of
the next 5 games. The Thunder won’t let this opportunity slip away again. The
starting lineups are basically even, but we know how important bench play can
be. And that’s a major edge to OKC. Also, what’s the over/under on clutch
3-pointers Derek Fisher hits in this series? 8 ½? Thunder in 7.
Western Conference Finals:
Thunder vs. Grizzlies: A rematch of the best playoff series
from last season; a thrilling 7-game series that featured some of the most
entertaining basketball I have ever seen. Memphis ended up losing that
triple-overtime game, which proved to be the difference in the series. But this
year I think the Grizz get their revenge.
Here are things that matter in playoff basketball: interior
scoring and perimeter defense. Memphis has the advantage in both. Mike Conley
and Tony Allen are elite defenders who have the ability to contain Westbrook
and Harden. And Rudy Gay is reaching the
point in his career when he finally tells himself, “This is my sixth season as
an NBA player. Nobody really respects my game. I’m arguably the most athletic
guy in the league. I’m just gonna focus on defense and shut down Kevin Durant
for the next two weeks and I don’t care about anything else.” That’s a potentially
scary thought for the Thunder, especially when you consider how ineffective
Ibaka and Perkins are offensively. I know everyone else is saying it, but that’s
their fatal flaw: inside scoring. It’s difficult to win three consecutive
playoff series when you rely on three perimeter players to score 75% of your
points. Meanwhile, Memphis has two of the most talented big men in the league. Even
when one has an off-night, they’re still really tough to defend. Grizzlies in 7.
NBA Finals:
Heat vs. Grizzlies: This is the year. This is LeBron’s final chance.
I’m honestly ready to say that if he doesn’t win a championship this season, he’s
never gonna win one. Because it’s right there in front of him. It’s his for the
taking. And if he doesn’t feel the urgency to grab it right now, I don’t think
he ever will. The Bulls are gonna keep getting better. The Thunder are gonna
keep getting better. There’s even been rumors that Pat Riley would break up the
team if the Heat didn’t win this year. It’s now or never.
As for a matchup with Memphis, I would still worry about the
Grizzlies suffering from an inferiority complex. Like, I think they would
question if they really belonged in the NBA Finals playing against LeBron James
and the Miami Heat. That’s why I’m hoping the Thunder pull it out. Because you
know Durant would just take the ball and drop 40 every night. No doubt in my
mind, you put Durant on the world’s biggest stage and he would embrace it. Just
shine in the spotlight like Kobe, Shaq or Jordan would have.
But I’m not gonna hedge my pick. I’ll stick with Memphis. In
my opinion, it would be one of the most entertaining NBA Finals ever. I mean
think about the athleticism on the court. Think about the matchups. LeBron and
Gay. Wade and TA. Skilled big men. Dependable point guards. Shaky coaches who
are probably in over their heads. Not to mention you would have all of America
desperately pulling for Memphis in the ultimate underdog series. Man, I should
really stop getting so excited about this, since it definitely won’t end up
happening. Anyway, Heat in 6.
